Decode Weekly Markets Recap: Highlight and Insights (05/05/2025 – 05/09/2025)

Estados Unidos

Wall Street’s temperature gauge ended the week without a clear trend line. Gains in the small‑ and mid‑cap arena stretched to a fifth consecutive week, yet the Dow Jones Industrial inched lower. The S&P 500 and tech‑heavy Nasdaq surrendered 0.47 percent and 0.27 percent.

Monday opened with a whimper, snapping the S&P’s nine‑session winning spree. Sentiment pivoted mid‑week after headlines signalled that senior U.S. and Chinese negotiators would sit down in Switzerland, stoking hopes that the tariff stand‑off might cool. On Thursday those hopes broadened when Washington and London unveiled the first bilateral accord since the reciprocal duties imposed in early April.

Federal Reserve – On Hold, Eyes Open

The Federal Open Market Committee, meeting Wednesday, froze the target range at 4.25 percent‑4.50 percent as every major forecaster expected. Its communiqué sounded upbeat on current activity yet flagged that the balance of risks around inflation and unemployment has tilted higher.

Chair Jerome Powell, in his press briefing, repeated that policy makers can afford to “watch the data roll in.” He acknowledged the uncomfortable possibility that fresh tariffs could stoke prices while damping output—a mix that could pull the Fed’s dual mandate in opposite directions. Rate‑futures pricing now assigns a slimmer chance of a cut at the June gathering.

Services Hold Firm; Factories Under Strain

Macro releases were sparse. The ISM services gauge climbed to 51.6 in April, spreading the expansion streak to ten months. New business, hiring and supplier deliveries ticked up; overall activity stayed healthy at 53.7. The snag: the prices paid sub‑index surged to 65.1, a two‑year peak heavily traced to import levies.

By contrast, the manufacturing PMI, published earlier, confirmed a second straight contraction. Survey chair Timothy Fiore noted firms are trimming output and payrolls while they “feel their way through an opaque outlook.”

Fixed‑Income Moves

Treasuries sold off modestly, nudged by the Fed hold and trade‑related optimism. Muni paper outperformed thanks to meagre new issuance. Investment‑grade corporates slipped, while high‑yield volumes stayed thin; abundant cash balances and paltry supply underpinned spreads.

(Data: Reuters via Yahoo! Finance and Bloomberg)

Europa

Continental gauges inched higher for a fourth week as trade détente chatter cushioned sentiment. The STOXX 600 added 0.29 percent. Germany’s DAX leapt 1.79 percent; Italy’s FTSE MIB 2.72 percent. Paris ceded 0.34 percent, and London’s FTSE 100 dipped 0.48 percent.

Thread‑the‑Needle at Threadneedle Street

The Bank of England trimmed Bank Rate 25 bp to 4.25 percent in a 5‑4 vote. Minutes revealed a knife‑edge debate; two dissenters wanted to hold unchanged. Investors duly pared bets on a third 2025 cut.

Nordic Notes

Stockholm’s Riksbank left policy unchanged at 2.25 percent but jettisoned its previous “no‑move” bias, hinting that softer global growth could open space to ease. Oslo’s Norges Bank held at 4.5 percent; deputy governor Pal Longva said the first move lower would “most likely” arrive in 2025, provided inflation calms.

Germany’s Last Minute Surge

Output in German workshops jumped 3 percent month‑on‑month in March, well above forecasts, as exporters raced to beat incoming U.S. tariffs. Orders climbed 3.6 percent.

UK Housing Cool‑Down

RICS data showed the post‑incentive lull: the house‑price balance sank to a nine‑month trough and sales volumes fell the most since August 2023.

Japón

The Nikkei 225 climbed 1.83 percent and the broader TOPIX 1.70 percent during the Golden Week‑shortened session, aided by a weaker yen that slid beyond ¥145 per dollar. Ten‑year JGB yields rose to 1.35 percent.

Talks with Washington Crawl

U.S.–Japan tariff negotiations made scant headway. Tokyo is lobbying for full withdrawal of 24 percent reciprocal duties and the additional 25 percent levies on autos, steel and aluminium, while U.S. negotiators eye greater access for farm exports.

Pay Packets Lag

Real wages contracted 2.1 percent year‑on‑year in March; nominal growth of 2.1 percent fell short of forecasts, casting doubt on the Bank of Japan’s timeline for policy normalization.

China

A holiday‑shortened week closed in the green: the CSI 300 +2.00 percent, Shanghai Composite +1.92 percent, Hang Seng +1.61 percent. Optimism flowed from Geneva trade talks and fresh liquidity.

The PBOC shaved its seven‑day reverse‑repo rate to 1.4 percent and lowered the reserve‑requirement ratio, injecting roughly RMB 1 trillion. The central bank also trimmed relending rates.

April customs data: Exports to the U.S. fell 21 percent y/y after the 145 percent tariff hike, but sales to India, ASEAN and the EU jumped, cushioning the blow.

Otros mercados

Czech Republic – Careful Cut

The CNB sliced the two‑week repo rate 25 bp to 3.50 percent amid softer commodity prices and slower global growth. Board members called the move “very cautious,” pointing to sticky services inflation and hot property prices.

Poland – First Trim in 18 Months

The NBP reduced its reference rate 50 bp to 5.25 percent as CPI eased to 4.2 percent and activity indicators cooled. Further direction will hinge on data and the evolving trade backdrop.

Data sources: Reuters, Bloomberg, Yahoo Finance.